Live from Austin!

During the 1990s, UK TV series Spitting Image included a song "Thank You Tory Voters", listing disasters caused by the Conservative government. One memorable line was "Voting Tory’s like a fart, no-one admits they’ve done it".

This was the point at which opinion pollsters noticed something interesting: Conservatives would routinely lose in every opinion poll, and then win the election. Studies were carried out, and it turned out that a surprisingly large number of people were so embarrassed by their support for the Tories that they would routinely tell opinion pollsters one thing, and then vote differently in the privacy of the voting booth.

People are starting to ask whether something similar might be happening in the US Democratic voter base. Here, it’s known as The Bradley Effect. And it’s real:

Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent" or responsible for their own troubles.

[...]

Given a choice of several positive and negative adjectives that might describe blacks, 20 percent of all whites said the word "violent" strongly applied. Among other words, 22 percent agreed with "boastful," 29 percent "complaining," 13 percent "lazy" and 11 percent "irresponsible." When asked about positive adjectives, whites were more likely to stay on the fence than give a strongly positive assessment.

Among white Democrats, one-third cited a negative adjective and, of those, 58 percent said they planned to back Obama.

Emphasis mine.

So a third of Democratic voters are racists. Imagine what the statistics for Republicans must look like.

The survey team also used Implicit Association Testing:

The survey broke ground by incorporating images of black and white faces to measure implicit racial attitudes, or prejudices that are so deeply rooted that people may not realize they have them. That test suggested the incidence of racial prejudice is even higher, with more than half of whites revealing more negative feelings toward blacks than whites.

A study of the brains of political partisans shed some scientific light on the obvious, and will be worth remembering in this upcoming year:

The Democrats and Republicans were given a reasoning task in which they had to evaluate threatening information about their own candidate. During the task, the subjects underwent fMRI to see what parts of their brain were active. What the researchers found was striking.

"We did not see any increased activation of the parts of the brain normally engaged during reasoning," says Drew Westen, director of clinical psychology at Emory who led the study.

Yeah, no shit.

Once partisans had come to completely biased conclusions — essentially finding ways to ignore information that could not be rationally discounted — not only did circuits that mediate negative emotions like sadness and disgust turn off, but subjects got a blast of activation in circuits involved in reward — similar to what addicts receive when they get their fix, Westen explains.

"None of the circuits involved in conscious reasoning were particularly engaged," says Westen. "Essentially, it appears as if partisans twirl the cognitive kaleidoscope until they get the conclusions they want, and then they get massively reinforced for it, with the elimination of negative emotional states and activation of positive ones."

In other words, Washington was right.

Washington Post :

Victoria Switzer, a retired social studies teacher, was on phone-bank duty one night during the Pennsylvania primary campaign. One night was all she could take: "It wasn’t pretty." She made 60 calls to prospective voters in Susquehanna County, her home county, which is 98 percent white. The responses were dispiriting. One caller, Switzer remembers, said he couldn’t possibly vote for Obama and concluded: "Hang that darky from a tree!"

[...]

Karen Seifert, a volunteer from New York, was outside of the largest polling location in Lackawanna County, Pa., on primary day when she was pressed by a Clinton volunteer to explain her backing of Obama. "I trust him," Seifert replied. According to Seifert, the woman pointed to Obama’s face on Seifert’s T-shirt and said: "He’s a half-breed and he’s a Muslim. How can you trust that?"

Stay classy, America!

My prediction: Lieberman will run in 2004. The Democrats will decide to continue with their strategy of “We’re exactly like the Republicans, except we care”, assuming that the only reason it didn’t work last time was that they didn’t try it hard enough. They will pick Lieberman to run for President.

Bush will win a second term. Either that or Lieberman will win, which will be just as bad for civil liberties.

Daschle thinks the Democrats lost the elections because they weren’t similar enough to the Republicans, and that they’d do better if they were the party of Iraq wars and tax cuts.

Item 1: The Republicans in Florida paid Database Technologies (DBT) to produce a list of felons who could be prevented from voting in the Presidential election. Only one county checked the accuracy of the list it was given; they found it was 95% wrong. It turns out that DBT did not verify the information by phone, even though they were paid to do so. DBT say that Clayton Roberts, Republican head of elections, “…wanted there to be more names than were actually verified as being a convicted felon.” It’s estimated that the Democrats lost 22,000 votes because of the inaccuracy of the database.

Item 2: California Public Utilities Commission has analyzed data on power plant activity, and determined that plants were deliberately shut down during periods of power shortage, to increase prices.