Tag Archives: politics

We aim to please

An identified ████████ as of October planned to engage in sniper attacks against protestors in Houston, Texas, if deemed necessary. An identified ████████ had received intelligence that indicated the protesters in New York and Seattle planned similar protests in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Austin, Texas. ████████ planned to gather intelligence against the leaders of the protest groups and obtain photographs, then formulate a plan to kill the leadership via suppressed sniper rifles.

FBI document on Occupy Wall Street,
released under Freedom of Information Act;
page 61.

On 13 October 2011, writer sent via email an excerpt from the daily ████████ regarding FBI Houston’s ████████ to all IAs, SSRAs and SSA █████. This ███ identified the exploitation of the Occupy Movement by ████████████████████████████████████ interested in developing a long-term plan to kill local Occupy leaders via sniper fire.

—FBI document on Occupy Wall Street,
released under Freedom of Information Act;
page 69.

FBI Customer Satisfaction Survey

Please take a moment to complete this survey and help evaluate the quality, value and relevance of our product. Your response will help us serve you more effectively and efficiently in the future. Thank you for your cooperation and assistance.

—FBI document on Occupy Wall Street,
released under Freedom of Information Act;
page 97.

The “Oh really?” factor

First of all, this is not an article about why the Republicans lost. The answer to that question is pretty obvious, and they know it; they’ve painted themselves into a corner as the party of angry scared old straight white misogynist guys. That’s a very narrow demographic that’s dying out rapidly.

No, this is an article about why the Republicans didn’t realize they were losing, and reacted with such anger and shock when reality hit them on election night.

Let’s start by going back to 2004, when Karl Rove sneered at the “reality-based community”:

[Rove] said that guys like me were “in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. “That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” he continued. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors… and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”

The Romney campaign was run on a similar basis, with one of their pollsters memorably saying “…we’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers”. Romney followers agreed. When a protestor tried to raise the issue of anthropogenic climate change during a town hall meeting, Romney supporters literally drowned out the truth with chants of “USA! USA!”. They didn’t even want Romney to answer the point, and he obligingly ignored it and changed the subject.

Meanwhile, much of the hatred for Obama was based on falsehoods and conspiracy theories. He was a Kenyan Muslim with Communist parents who faked Bin Laden’s death, and he was working with the United Nations to round up Republicans, take their guns away, and have them executed—or so many apparently believed, in spite of the lack of evidence. Just days before the election, Donald Trump was still wigging out about Obama’s birth certificate, a document that was released and authenticated years ago.

Republicans also seemed to view consistency as an unnecessary inconvenience; as another spokesman put it:

“Well, I think you hit a reset button for the fall campaign. Everything changes. It’s almost like an Etch-A-Sketch. You can kind of shake it up and restart all of it over again.”

The sense I got was that the Etch-a-Sketch was practically shaken to pieces. It wasn’t just that Romney’s positions changed from year to year or month to month, or even week to week; they were inconsistent even in the space of a single debate. He’d say something very reasonable, then a few minutes later he’d say something else that was completely inconsistent with his earlier statement. For example, in the second debate, Romney said:

We have not made the progress we need to make to put people back to work. That’s why I put out a five-point plan that gets America 12 million new jobs in four years and rising take-home pay.

But then later in the very same debate, he laughed and said:

Government does not create jobs. Government does not create jobs.

It’s not for nothing that people joked that he was the quantum candidate. It wasn’t even clear that Romney’s platform was the Republican platform; sometimes it was, sometimes it wasn’t.

Meanwhile, there’s a right wing media environment that’s pretty much entirely separate from the rest of the media world. And one of the things that the right wing media pretty much universally agreed on was that the opinion polls were drastically underestimating Mitt Romney’s popularity. Steve Forbes took to the pulpit in his magazine to explain:

Mitt Romney will win big tonight. His popular vote margin will be between 3 – 5%. He will win the Electoral College I believe by a vote of 321 to 217, and with luck, even more. [...] One of the big Wednesday morning stories will be why most of the polls didn’t have this right. The basic answer is their model. Incredibly, in the face of contrary evidence, a number of polls used the 2008 model for this election although there was little objective evidence that those turnouts would hold for this contest. This time – and early voting confirms this – the relative Democrat/Republican split is almost even. In 2008, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a good margin. Moreover Romney is well ahead among independents, which Obama carried four years before. That’s why his popular vote margin will be 3 points or more.

Romney was sure he would win. So sure he’d win that he didn’t bother to write a concession speech. So sure, his staffers went live with a Romney administration transition web site, and started planning the inauguration. So sure, he had spent $25,000 for a big firework display in the Boston harbor to celebrate his win.

Why didn’t Republicans believe the polls? It turns out to be those “independents” again:

Independents. State polls showed Romney winning big among independents. Historically, any candidate polling that well among independents wins. But as it turned out, many of those independents were former Republicans who now self-identify as independents. The state polls weren’t oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans – there just weren’t as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents.

This, to me, sounds like what UK opinion pollsters call the Shy Tory Factor. At a certain point, right wing parties become so incredibly embarrassing to the people who vote for them, that they like to pretend they’re not doing so. In America, the Shy Tory is known as a Denialican, as listed in The 24 Types of Libertarian. They call themselves libertarians, but they vote Republican. This time around they were easily spotted by their Ron Paul bumper stickers.

Climate change denial, redefining rape, creationism, First Amendment denial and the “War on Christmas”, anti-abortion campaigning that increases the number of lives destroyed… it’s all very embarrassing when you’re someone who’s really only there for the talk of small government, self-reliance and fiscal responsibility. And if you look at the party’s actual record on small government and fiscal responsibility, it’s even more embarrassing. Is it any wonder that intelligent Republicans don’t want to call themselves Republicans any more?

So now the election is over, Mitt Romney isn’t The White Horse, and the question I find myself asking is what happens next. Not for the country—I’m pretty sure we’ll just get four more years of watered-down moderate Republicanism. No, what happens next for the Republican party? In the cold light of day, perhaps ideas like factual accuracy, consistency, and a touch of humility no longer seem quite so laughable. But do they have the determination they will need to eject the racist, homophobic and misogynist nutcases so that they can one day stand a chance of appealing to more than half the voting population?

I’m doubtful, not least because it seems the modern Republican party was built on the back of mail-order snake oil sales. Saving the party in the long run will involve alienating many of its most loyal voters in the short term. Do they have the nerve to try?

In defense of not voting

Harper’s Magazine this month has a spirited defense in favor of not voting:

Try to imagine, if you can, candidate Barack Obama in 2008 running on a platform of balancing the budget and appeasing Wall Street by reducing Social Security benefits, restricting Medicare and Medicaid entitlements, increasing the retirement age, and never challenging the established hierarchy of the Democratic Party but rather returning members of the old Clinton regime to positions of power in his administration, especially those advocates of unregulated capitalism who did so much to bring on the economic crisis in the first place. This candidate Obama would not have been elected, which is of course why you did not see him. Yet President Obama has pursued these policies throughout his administration—and they appear to be exactly what he had in mind all along.

Examples follow, including George W Bush and Bill Clinton.

On the eve of what both major parties are telling us is (yet another) critical election here in America, we are forced to question whether it is worth our while to vote at all—whether if, by voting for Barack Obama or for Mitt Romney, we will once again get almost the complete opposite of what we have been promised.
[...]
In almost every case, taking part in our democracy proved to be not only disappointing but disastrous. Vote to save your house, bail out a bank. Vote for smaller government, get an empire. Vote to balance the budget, lose your retirement. It’s all good. Or bad. And it has nothing to do with you or the choices you made at the voting booth.

One thing I noticed about the first presidential debate was the candidates’ complete inability to answer the first question and distinguish themselves from each other.

Both candidates are in the pocket of Wall Street. Both think extrajudicial assassination via drone strikes is just fine. Both will allow construction of the Keystone XL pipeline (Obama’s just delaying it until after the election). Both have the same ideas about healthcare, which involve funneling money into the pockets of insurance companies—so they were reduced to bickering about whether or not one of the schemes included coverage for pre-existing conditions. (Obama was lying or misinformed about that, both Obamacare and Romneycare have coverage for pre-existing conditions.)

I’m not saying they’re both the same; Barack Obama could have said that the big difference he offered was protecting the right to abortion and supporting gay rights. Mitt Romney could have said that his difference from Obama is his desire to give big tax cuts to rich people and cripple the economy with austerity measures against the middle class. But neither of those statements would be palatable to voters, so Romney lied about his own tax plans and Obama quietly refrained from mentioning any policy of his that might actually distinguish him.

Romney did attempt to paint himself as different by saying that he was willing to ‘reach across the aisle’ and work with Democrats. Unfortunately that’s news to those of us who watched him play Governor in Massachusetts, where he had an autocratic style of leadership and would simply veto anything he didn’t like, at more than twice the rate of his Republican predecessors.

It’s possible that Romney would be a disaster by signing any crazy garbage passed by a presumably Republican Congress, from ‘Defense of Marriage’ acts to abortion bans to destruction of Medicare; it’s hard to tell by looking at his track record, and you certainly can’t trust what the slimy weasel says. He would most likely make a lot of use of that Presidential veto against anything Democrats passed that he didn’t like. Obama would presumably be a bit less likely to roll over and sign anything Republicans wrote, and doesn’t seem to like vetoing Democratic measures. So, um, yay Obama?

Compare and contrast

“‎I believe in an America where millions of Americans believe in an America that’s the America millions of Americans believe in. That’s the America I love.” — Mitt Romney.

“I think all righthtinking people in this country are sick and tired of being told that ordinary, decent people are fed up in this country with being sick and tired. I’m certainly not! And I’m sick and tired of being told that I am.” — Graham Chapman, Monty Python’s Flying Circus

Dodging issues the Ron Paul way

I’ve come to realize that Ron Paul’s rhetorical positioning is extremely clever, in that it allows him to appeal to both sides of many issues. To put it another way, he is able to take a theoretical stand against bad things while advocating policies that would lead directly to them.

Consider racism, for example. Ron Paul believes that the Civil Rights Act should never have been passed. He thinks that companies and individuals should be free to be as racist as they like. Want to post a “No blacks need apply” sign? He thinks you should have the freedom to do that. And yet, at the same time, Ron Paul states clearly that he personally thinks that racism is a bad thing. It’s very unfair, no doubt about it. It’s just that he feels that we should wait until everyone voluntarily decides to stop being racist, rather than passing laws. It’s regrettable that giving people the freedom to be racist would result in a lot of racism, but what are you going to do, eh? It’s just human nature.

So his liberal supporters get to point at his statements against racism; and his neo-Nazi supporters at Stormfront get to point at his statements against the Civil Rights Act and his desire to repeal laws against discrimination. And he gets to shrug, grin, and dodge the issue.

Well, I think this is an ingenious position. Why don’t we try it with some other laws?

Sure, theft is bad. But we shouldn’t have big government forcing people to stop thieving. Instead, we should patiently wait until everyone voluntarily decides to stop. In fact, it’s the statists who cause theft with their legislation, dividing people into “have” and “have not”, “owner” and “not owner”, and leading to people’s obsession with property, right? But you know, theft is really really bad. Making it legal shouldn’t in any way be seen as condoning it, OK?

Wrong Paul

With the current focus on Ron Paul’s newsletters and his claim that he was unaware of their content or did not approve of it (yeah, right), I thought it would be educational to take a look at quotes from articles explicitly written by Ron Paul himself.

Ron Paul defends a gay person’s freedom — unless it’s the freedom to get married, in which case he thinks federal interference in your personal life is just fine:

“If I were in Congress in 1996, I would have voted for the Defense of Marriage Act, which used Congress’s constitutional authority to define what official state documents other states have to recognize under the Full Faith and Credit Clause, to ensure that no state would be forced to recognize a “same sex” marriage license issued in another state.” — Ron Paul, article on the Federal Marriage Amendment

Ron Paul supports state governments in their attempts to criminalize sex acts between consenting adults, saying that the state has the right to enforce sodomy laws:

“The Court determined that Texas had no right to establish its own standards for private sexual conduct, because gay sodomy is somehow protected under the 14th amendment “right to privacy.” Ridiculous as sodomy laws may be, there clearly is no right to privacy nor sodomy found anywhere in the Constitution. There are, however, states’ rights — rights plainly affirmed in the Ninth and Tenth amendments. Under those amendments, the State of Texas has the right to decide for itself how to regulate social matters like sex, using its own local standards. But rather than applying the real Constitution and declining jurisdiction over a properly state matter, the Court decided to apply the imaginary Constitution and impose its vision on the people of Texas.” — Federal Courts and the Imaginary Constitution

Ron Paul is strongly anti-abortion:

“I am strongly pro-life. I think one of the most disastrous rulings of this century was Roe versus Wade. I do believe in the slippery slope theory. I believe that if people are careless and casual about life at the beginning of life, we will be careless and casual about life at the end. Abortion leads to euthanasia. I believe that.” — Ron Paul, speech to Congress

Ron Paul believes government should actively promote religious beliefs:

“The notion of a rigid separation between church and state has no basis in either the text of the Constitution or the writings of our Founding Fathers.” — Ron Paul, ‘The War On Religion’

As for the Civil Rights Act, that was a bad thing, because the right to post “No coloreds need apply” signs and run whites-only businesses and clubs was infringed:

“However, contrary to the claims of the supporters of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the sponsors of H.Res. 676, the Civil Rights Act of 1964 did not improve race relations or enhance freedom. [...] The Civil Rights Act of 1964 gave the federal government unprecedented power over the hiring, employee relations, and customer service practices of every business in the country. The result was a massive violation of the rights of private property and contract, which are the bedrocks of free society.” — Ron Paul, ‘The Trouble With the ’64 Civil Rights Act’

In fact, Ron Paul goes further, claiming that people who attempt to promote diversity within organizations are the true promoters of racism:

“By encouraging Americans to adopt a group mentality, the advocates of so-called “diversity” actually perpetuate racism. Their intense focus on race is inherently racist, because it views individuals only as members of racial groups.” — Ron Paul, ‘What Really Divides Us?’

Got any more good ones?

Broken Britain

I’ve written before about my perception that the UK took a drastic turn in the wrong direction during the 1970s, and that it has been deteriorating ever since. My perception is that the UK now has political and economic problems worse even than the USA. This is not a popular opinion, particularly among those who still live in the UK. Some accused me of callousness, but I have friends and family in the UK. I still return from time to time—most recently about a year ago—so I am far from uncaring about what happens to the nation.

Having explained that, I’d like to draw attention to an article titled “Broken Britain” which recently appeared in Harper’s Magazine. Written by Ed Vulliamy of The Guardian, it takes the UK riots of August 2011 as a starting point.

The riots were almost universally portrayed in the UK media as meaningless violence perpetrated by a bunch of criminals who wanted something for nothing. And yet, as Vulliamy points out, they were predicted:

The deputy prime minister, Nick Clegg, however, had predicted the riots more than a year earlier. On April 11, 2010, he had appeared on Sky News to discuss the rioting then going on in Greece. He warned that if a Conservative government came to power in Britain and were to, as he put it, “slash and burn public services on a thin mandate,” “a lot of people [would] react badly to that.” Asked whether the anticipated reaction could include “rioting in the streets,” Clegg replied, “I think there is a very serious risk.”

Clegg’s Liberal Democrats went on to make broken promises a major issue in their election campaign. Clegg promised to oppose a rise in tuition fees for students, and asked people to vote Liberal Democrat to make Britain fair.

And then came the election in May 2010, and a hung Parliament. Nick Clegg led the Liberal Democrats to join up with the Conservatives, allowing the Tories to grab power with only 36% of the vote. He then broke his promise on tuition fees by backing Conservative plans which tripled them. He cut pensions, cut child tax credits, cut the NHS, and supported a budget which cut police and courts in a way that even the far-right Daily Mail described as ‘savage’.

Clegg was attacked with blue paint by disgusted former Liberal Democrats, and burnt in effigy by angry students. His party’s support dropped like a stone to its lowest level in 14 years. People were so angry that when there was a referendum on electoral reform in May 2011, former Labour cabinet minister Peter Hain begged voters to put aside their hatred of Nick Clegg and vote for reform anyway. Clegg himself also asked for people to look past their desire to poke him in the eye.

It didn’t work. The referendum failed, and with it went all hope of seeing the UK’s bent electoral system improved within my lifetime. The UK would remain with a voting system as hopelessly broken as the one that keeps the Democrats and Republicans in power in the US.

After I reached voting age, I voted Liberal Democrat in every UK election, until I left the country and ceased to be able to vote anywhere. To me, fixing the electoral system was the first priority, because nothing would ever change as long as two parties could collude to exclude any other options.

I believe Nick Clegg singlehandedly destroyed electoral reform in the UK, and destroyed the Liberal Democrats too. If I were still there, I’d have been burning the lying piece of shit in effigy myself for Bonfire Night. Even now, nearly 8000km away, I find myself taking breaks from writing about Nick Clegg in order to pace around and swear. But I digress…

In August 2011 came those riots Nick Clegg had warned about—brought on by his very own actions as coalition leader. Yet suddenly Clegg seemed to suffer some kind of amnesia. He blamed “smash and grab, get what you can” values, and insisted that in spite of rioting across the country, those savage cuts in police funding would still be going ahead. By the time the remaining Liberal Democrats held their party conference in September, newspapers were comparing Clegg to Tony Blair: a polished performer, but someone who had betrayed his supporters and now mostly brings to mind the word “liar”.

Yes, just as America has two corrupt major parties equally in the pay of the financial industries who destroyed the economy, so the UK is bipartisan when it comes to corruption. The expenses scandal which unravelled in September turned out to be an all-party affair. Labour MP Hazel Blears was revealed to have claimed expenses for three different homes, having sold two more and used a loophole to avoid paying tax on the profits. Conservative Douglas Hogg had the taxpayers pay for having his manor’s moat cleaned and his piano tuned. Labour’s Sir Gerald Kaufman billed the taxpayers £8,865 for a Bang & Olufsen LCD TV. Conservative Sir Peter Viggers had £40,000 in fraudulent expenses, including £1,645 for a floating ornamental duck house. Liberal Democrat David Laws broke a few by claiming £40,000 in rent and then paying it to his partner. (His excuse? He said he did it because he didn’t want people to realize he was gay. I wonder if he’s a Pet Shop Boys fan?)  And of course, nobody was surprised to find Nick Clegg’s name on the list; he had to pay back part of a £3,900 claim he submitted for having his gardening done.

As Vulliamy puts it:

The “moral collapse,” it seems, starts at the top. Yet no one wanted to connect the dots—to look at the miasma of treaties, social and political alliances, cycles of back-scratching and mutual convergences that define the British elite. Britain’s problems are singular: singularly serious, singularly fetid, and singularly vulgar. The country that packages itself as “Cool Britannia” has become greedy, obsessed with commercialism at the expense of any other value or norm, xenophobic, belligerent and hubristic.

I think he’s wrong about the xenophobia, but probably right about the hubris. As I used to say in the years before I left, the UK is complacent and lazy. People are content to let the status quo continue, to overlook corruption and dishonesty, to carry on doing things the same way simply because that’s the way they’ve always been done, and to put up with terrible service and then moan about it afterwards rather than actually taking their business elsewhere.

This is hardly a new phenomenon, of course. “Fawlty Towers” and Monty Python made the same points repeatedly back in the 1970s; all that has changed now is that everything has been given a sprinkling of vacuous slogans and corporate marketingspeak:

Britain itself is a corporate mediocrity, a place where the customer is almost always wrong and people always seem to be working but not much gets done very well.

Or as one book I saw put it, rather more bluntly: Is it just me, or is everything shit?

But let’s go back to ask how we got to this point, as I did in my earlier article. Vulliamy again:

Exactly how and why Britain has decomposed into a more rotten country than it was two or three decades ago is hard to gauge, but some answers can, I think, be found in the destruction of an industrial society and the loss of the cohesion and community afforded by the manufacturing base. The devastation of manufacturing and its social fabric occurred, during the 1980s and ’90s, in parallel with an extreme form of privatization of infrastructure, utilities, and services that were (and in continental Western Europe largely still are) seen as public and civic functions, not merely opportunities to make money. Traditional industries were replaced by retail and “service” industries, and one in particular—financial services—so that the economy came to rest on the whims and needs of supranational banking.

But while infrastructure privatization was a mixed bag, the shifting of the UK economy to financial and service industries was the more disastrous change in the long term. It was probably a good thing that Margaret Thatcher broke up the cosy old boys club that used to control the London Stock Exchange with her 1986 “Big Bang”. Unfortunately, her policies made the country’s economic health far too dependent on the City. The USA may have an unhealthy relationship with the financial services sector, but at least the USA still has a manufacturing industry to speak of, unlike the UK.

With the City of London deregulated, the Tories set about “selling off the family silver”, as Labour politicians of the time put it:

[…] the National Coal Board, British Rail, the Gas Board, the Water Board. They were the names of publicly run and owned industries and services. They were often inefficient, but they were run by people who knew what they were doing and provided what they promised—water, heating, lighting, railways—not just shareholder dividends.

Even America often recognizes the need for utilities to remain in public ownership. Here in Austin, Texas, the city owns and operates the electrical and water utilities, on a not-for-profit basis. Many other US towns and cities do the same, particularly in rural areas.

But when the Conservatives finally got kicked out of power after 18 miserable years, it was into the warm embrace of Tony Blair’s “New Labour”.

Labour continued a psychotic privatization not even the Conservatives would have dreamed of: selling off different lines of the capital city’s subway system to different consortia, in what was called a Public-Private Partnership.

(Vulliamy points out that the Jubilee line seems to be the most troubled, even though it’s so new that I remember it opening in 1979; whereas the Bakerloo line continues to work quite well, even though it opened in 1906. Again, it seems that modern Britain does a lot of stuff, but none of it is done very well.)

So why did the selloffs continue? The simple answer is that it was the only way the governments of the 90s and 2000s—whether Conservative or Labour—could get the books to balance. Between 1999 and 2002, Labour got so desperate that it sold half of Britain’s gold reserves in an attempt to avoid having to implement cuts. Like Saudi Arabia’s government propping itself up with oil profits, successive UK governments propped themselves up with fire sales of infrastructure and state-owned resources.

Now that there’s nothing left to sell, the obvious question is how much long term benefit came from those sales. Obviously selling off the gold reserves looks like a pretty bad move at this point, but given that the proceeds wouldn’t even cover a tenth of the cost of the bank bailouts it’s all a bit academic. More worrying is the state of UK society:

The state of modern Britain was molded in large part by the Blair years. In 2007, a decade into the New Labour enterprise, a UNICEF report placed Britain last among twenty-one developed countries for the well-being of children. […]
By May 2009, after ten years of Blair’s Labour government (and two years of Gordon Brown’s), the gap between the rich and the poor in Britain was larger than at any time since record-keeping began in the early 1960s. […] The government had not managed to reduce the number of impoverished children and pensioners, despite increases in both categories in 2008.

In other words, if you look at graphs of trends in social inequality and social mobility, you find that the gap between rich and poor is wider than ever before. Worse, if you’re born into poverty, the chances of improving your situation are lower than ever before. The UK even gives the USA a run for its money in inequality, which is a staggering accomplishment.

As I mentioned earlier, the Cameron/Clegg government is now performing the kind of ruthless slashing of expenditure that US Republicans favor. This suggests that things will get worse; in the US, research shows that states which slashed expenditure in response to recession did worse than the ones that didn’t. Conventional economic wisdom is that you get out of recession by spending money to create jobs. To be fair, the Tories are also trying to do some of that, bizarrely even while claiming that government can’t create jobs.

So, two corrupt major parties. Both authoritarian, both selling off anything they can grab in a desperate attempt to prop up a collapsing economy, both paying billions in bailouts to their friends in the big banks, both facing social unrest, both cutting taxes and spending in the middle of a recession.

Neither Tony Blair’s authoritarianism nor David Cameron’s promise to unravel it represents transformation of any kind, because any professed differences between politicians and parties in Britain are spurious political pantomime.

In that respect, the UK and USA are perhaps closer now than they have ever been before.

Adam Curtis: All Watched Over By Machines of Loving Grace

I realize that I am desperately late to this particular party. Everyone has probably already watched the documentary, read the inevitable backlash, and digested the response to the backlash. Nevertheless, here are my notes on the first episode.

Part 1: Love and Power

Barbara Branden’s comments about Ayn Rand being disappointed by the reception of “Atlas Shrugged” are hilarious, yet sad. She reports that Rand was desperately upset when the people in her inner circle who had how much they liked the book, failed to stand up and say what genius it was when it was being excoriated in the press. Well, Ayn, of course they didn’t. They were behaving in their own selfish rational self-interest, exactly the way you yourself had told them they should. That should have been a learning experience for you right there, but somehow it wasn’t, and you ended up alone in a crummy apartment living off Social Security.

I remember when Alan Greenspan buckled under and took back his prediction that the economy was “irrationally exuberant”. I thought at the time that it was patently obvious that there were a lot of incredibly overvalued companies, and that we were likely in a bubble of speculation on Internet stocks. For one project I worked on, Enron was one of the bidders. I did some reading, concluded that they were dodgy, and said so. They were rejected. A few months later, their whole business imploded. Their glossy brochures had been really impressive though.

The idea of treating marriage and relationships rationally, or as business arrangements, is a very bizarre American one. There are lots of articles on the net which put the view across. “What can the corporate world teach us about personal relationships?” — I sincerely hope that the answer is “nothing”, but I’ve read of couples who schedule weekly meetings with each other to deliver “status updates”. There have even been Powerpoint proposals. The latest person to end up miserable because of treating marriage as a business? Kim Kardashian, allegedly.

The whole issue around commodifying our thoughts for exploitation by others is one of the reasons why I post anything of length on a site that I own, rather than letting Facebook or Google own them. Of course, Google Plus and Facebook are good ways to get an audience—but you don’t want to let them own you.

One of the sad facts about the New Economy idea of unregulated markets and computer networks leading to stability, is that I think any decent mathematician or computer scientist would have told you that it was almost certainly not going to work. Unregulated systems with feedback often have chaotic behavior, and the more complicated the system, the more likely it is to be chaotic. Even trivial systems of a few equations with feedback can result in chaotic complexity—that’s what makes fractals so interesting. Unfortunately a lot of people in Internet businesses and banks in the 90s either didn’t have the mathematical background to know about chaotic systems, or didn’t want to believe that they were building them. I remember reading articles about the issue at the time, but nobody really took it seriously. There is at least now some discussion of issues like the effect of trading speed on market stability, even as the financial services companies continue to reduce already small latencies to allow for even faster trading cycles.

Around Austin, Greenspan and the Federal Reserve are widely seen as villains. It’s pretty common to see “End The Fed” on bumper stickers and T-shirts. Unfortunately, a lot of the criticism comes from Ron Paul followers, and Paul is one of those people who still believes that unregulated market systems will be naturally stable. The fact that history seems to show the opposite, he and his followers dismiss, arguing that there was still some government regulation somewhere, and if only we had absolutely no regulation anywhere, then it would all work just fine. That is, the cure that killed the economy didn’t work because we didn’t try it hard enough.

It has been obvious to many people for years that China has been systematically buying control of the USA. As I would tell people during the boom, when they got angry for action against China over human rights abuse: China could shut down the US economy overnight any time they liked. They wouldn’t need bombs to do so, they would just shut down a few factories or ban exports. The USA wouldn’t be able to restart manufacturing, and its economy would collapse. There are a few companies that understand this; mostly foreign ones, like Toyota. They keep manufacturing plants across the globe, hedging their bets.

Finally: It’s pretty ballsy of Curtis to effectively make the case that Al Qaeda were right to bomb the WTC. Fortunately for him, I think he stated it subtly enough that the people who might otherwise have lynched him, failed to notice the point being made.

Thoughts on political discussion

Or: How to have a political discussion that doesn’t devolve into a screaming match — some rules for all participants to follow.

  1. Know the difference between a fact and an opinion. “Corporate profits are higher now than ever before” is a fact that can be demonstrated by referring to data. “Handgun ownership leads to increased crime” is an opinion; trends in data are not consistent, and proving causality is problematic given the number of other factors that vary.
  2. Accept the facts of the situation. At this point, it’s ridiculous to argue that global warming is not occurring. We have masses of data from multiple sources. We can discuss which data sets are most accurate, what the cause of the warming might be, what actions we should take, and whether we can even do anything about it–but discussing the basic fact of global warming is as pointless as discussing whether gravity is real.
  3. Understand that reality is complicated. It’s said that every complex problem has a simple and obvious solution that will make things worse. A less cynical way to put it is that if you have one simple proposed fix for everything, it’s very unlikely that your fix will work well across the board, whether it’s “cut taxes and let individuals sort everything out” or “have government plan everything centrally”.
  4. Understand that there are probably multiple solutions to any complex economic or social problem. Even if your solution is right, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the other parties are wrong.
  5. Try to accept that people who disagree with you are probably not evil, venal, dishonest or amoral. Conservatives who want to get rid of universal healthcare most likely honestly believe that the problems with the US medical system are caused by too much government interference; it’s not that they want to see poor people dying in the street. Liberals who want to get rid of handguns are not trying to institute a fascist dictatorship; they just believe that eliminating legal ownership of firearms would make the world safer for everyone.
  6. Recognize that rule 5 doesn’t necessarily apply to politicians. Once someone becomes a career politician and relies on special interests to fund his career and maintain his salary, his opinions are likely to be unduly influenced–perhaps not consciously, but we are fundamentally tribal in our thinking and naturally tend to think better of those who are nice to us. Even when we try to be impartial, we tend to have implicit biases, and when money and career and family are on the line, those biases can be strong. So don’t trust politicians of any party — but do recognize that their apparent untrustworthiness isn’t entirely their fault, and is more of a systemic problem.
  7. Understand that the media lies to you. If a newspaper tells you that your taxes have gone up, you need to go look at the actual numbers. If they tell you that a recent study shows that nuclear power causes cancer, you need to look at the abstract of the study carefully and see what it actually says. This applies to all media sources. It’s not that TV and newspapers have a left wing or right wing bias; rather, their bias is towards laziness and reporting what furthers their corporate interests.
  8. Remember that individuals are individual. Even if you think the majority of Christians are idiots, that doesn’t mean you’re not talking to a smart one. You may think homosexuals are all promiscuous, and may even have objective data that seems to prove it–but you could be talking to one who’s celibate.

Anyone have any other ideas?

Join the T-Mobile Rebel Alliance

So, AT&T have announced that they want to buy T-Mobile? That doesn’t mean we have to go down without a fight.

Yes, it’s time to start writing letters. Real letters, because a single written personal letter is far more effective than clicking a bunch of online polls. (Sorry, Credo and MoveOn, but it’s true.)

The first address to write to is:

United States Department of Justice
Citizen Complaint Center
Antitrust Division
950 Pennsylvania Ave., NW
Room 3322
Washington, DC 20530

The above is the complaints division of the DOJ team that will have to approve the deal.

Next up is the Senate Judiciary subcommittee on antitrust, competition policy and consumer rights. They say they’re going to take a close look at the implications of the deal, so let’s make our voices heard.

I plan to write to John Cornyn, since he’s my Senator; and Al Franken, since he’s awesome and seems like he might actually care. Here’s the address:

U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary
Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights
224 Dirksen Senate Office Building
Washington, DC 20510

Or you could use your senator’s regular address. The main thing is to get writing.

Later on the FCC will undoubtedly open a docket for public comments on the proposed deal. They have a web-based system for comments, I’ll post instructions for that when I hear that the docket has been posted.

Some things you might want to discuss in your letters:

  • The fact that AT&T is the worst-rated cell phone provider according to Consumer Reports, coming dead last in every single category.
  • The observed effect of AT&T’s merger with Cingular, which was also promised to improve things for consumers.
  • How much your bill will go up, percentage wise.
  • The fact that the US will only have a single GSM provider.
  • The difficulty of switching providers when all three networks use incompatible technical standards.
  • The fact that every T-Mobile customer will need a new phone–with a new 2-year contract.
  • The fact that AT&T lock down their Android phones.

Oh, and proper salutation is “The Honorable Senator Smith”, though “Dear Senator Smith” will probably do in these days of informality.